The rate is fine on a miss and excellent on a hit, and TMT's artifact density is the question that determines which. Counting common and uncommon artifacts in the set (equipment like Bespoke Bō and Novel Nunchaku, plus the food-makers and the scattered utility pieces), a dedicated UR Artifacts or Mardu Equipment build can reasonably field eight to ten artifacts in the maindeck, which puts the dig at roughly a coin-flip to hit. That is the threshold where Casey crosses from filler two-drop to the engine piece the deck builds around.
P1P5 to P1P7 in red-artifact lanes, later in straight aggressive red. The haste matters for the floor: on a whiff you still presented two damage on turn two into a format whose ground commons are mostly 2/2 and 2/3, where racing a tapped-out opponent for one turn buys real life-total margin. The ceiling is what UR Sneak and RW Equipment want: turn-two Casey into turn-three Bespoke Bō equip-and-swing is the cleanest tempo line red gets in this set, and finding the equipment to make it happen is exactly what the trigger is for.
Maindeck in any red deck with five or more artifacts, sideboard otherwise. The punishers are the format's cheap removal: Grounded for Life clips it for one mana if it ever taps to attack, and Stomped by the Foot answers it before the equip lands. Against the BW removal decks Casey reads as a tempo bid, not a value engine; against the BG food and UR Sneak mirrors, it is the best two-drop in the format.

