Tools
Probability Calculator
How likely are you to draw the card you need? Hypergeometric odds for your opening hand, every turn after it, and the mulligans in between.
Presets
Opening hand · 7 cards
39.9%chance of at least one copy in your opening hand
By turn
Chance of having drawn at least one copy by the end of each turn, counting your opening hand plus one draw per turn.
Position
| Turn | Cards seen | P(≥1) | Expected copies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 39.9% | 0.47 |
| 2 | 8 | 44.5% | 0.53 |
| 3 | 9 | 48.8% | 0.60 |
| 4 | 10 | 52.8% | 0.67 |
| 5 | 11 | 56.6% | 0.73 |
| 6 | 12 | 60.1% | 0.80 |
| 7 | 13 | 63.4% | 0.87 |
| 8 | 14 | 66.5% | 0.93 |
| 9 | 15 | 69.4% | 1.00 |
| 10 | 16 | 72.2% | 1.07 |
Opening-hand distribution
Exact and cumulative odds for each copy count in your opening hand.
| Copies | Exactly | At least |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 60.1% | 100.0% |
| 1 | 33.6% | 39.9% |
| 2 | 5.9% | 6.3% |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | <0.1% | <0.1% |
London mulligans
Cumulative chance of seeing a hand with at least one copy, if you mulligan every hand without it. Each mulligan draws a fresh 7 before bottoming one additional card, so every attempt sees the full 7.
| Willing to mull to | P(≥1) |
|---|---|
| Keep 7 | 39.9% |
| 6 cards | 63.9% |
| 5 cards | 78.3% |
| 4 cards | 87.0% |